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Practical illustration: reliable coworker Jeff missing work — evidence overcomes prior probability

Do Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence? Nah. 00:38:35 – 00:40:06

Mike uses an everyday scenario to illustrate how evidence should override prior probability.

Scenario: coworker Jeff has never missed work in 20 years (very low prior probability of absence). You get a call saying he is absent. Then a text from Jeff confirming a family emergency. Do you go back to sleep because the prior probability is so low? Obviously not — the evidence (call + text) overrides the prior. Applied to the resurrection: ignoring the evidence because of a perceived low prior probability is not rational.

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