Problem 5: The slogan misapplies prior probability — humans are bad at estimating probabilities
Fifth and final critique, focused on the prior probability dimension.
Mike argues we are poor at guessing probabilities intuitively. He uses a personal anecdote: he bet his friend Jaime that he couldn't jump a fountain, based on an erroneous prior probability assessment. His friend jumped it. Moral: prior probability assessments based on intuition, without evidence, lead to wrong conclusions.
← Previous
The slogan formalized as a syllogism — and why it fails at p
Next →The prior probability of the resurrection cannot be assessed
Responses
Theology
verse entry
Genesis 2:15-20
Sections: cross_references, debate_points, exegesis, greek_analysis
Pulpit
research note
Commentary: Naming as Epistemology, Not Authority
Ardavanis says: > "Adam is given the responsibility of naming Eve, providing indication of God's design of the male operating in leadership with responsibility." The text gives its own stated purpos
Your Tags
Personal labels you apply to any item — separate from system topics. Tags are shared across all databases. Visit /tags to browse all your tags.
...more
Personal labels you apply to any item — separate from system topics. Tags are shared across all databases. Visit /tags to browse all your tags.
...more