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All (8) Mike Winger (8)
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Problem 2: No clear definition of what "extraordinary" means — equivocation fallacy

Second of five critiques.

Equivocation fallacy Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence Definition of extraordinary
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Twitter respondents define "extraordinary claim" as low prior probability

Part of Mike's data-gathering from Twitter atheists about how they define the slogan's terms.

Resurrection of Jesus Definition of extraordinary Prior probability
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Problem 5: The slogan misapplies prior probability — humans are bad at estimating probabilities

Fifth and final critique, focused on the prior probability dimension.

Epistemology Prior probability Human probability estimation
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

The prior probability of the resurrection cannot be assessed by counting how many people have naturally risen — category error

Mike drills into the specific error of applying natural-process probability to a theistic miracle claim.

Resurrection of Jesus Miracles Prior probability
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Richard Swinburne has done serious academic work on the prior probability of the resurrection

Mike cites a scholar who has engaged the probability question rigorously.

Resurrection of Jesus Richard Swinburne Prior probability
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Evidence can overcome even extremely low prior probabilities — the question is "did it happen?" not "what are the odds?"

Mike's positive epistemological alternative to the slogan's approach.

Resurrection of Jesus Epistemology Prior probability
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Practical illustration: reliable coworker Jeff missing work — evidence overcomes prior probability

Mike uses an everyday scenario to illustrate how evidence should override prior probability.

Epistemology Prior probability Confirmation bias
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Adding corroborating evidence: reasons to believe God exists and Scripture is reliable further overcome any prior improbability

Mike adds to the cumulative case by connecting evidence for God and Scripture to the prior probability question.

Existence of God Prior probability New Testament reliability