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All (14) Mike Winger (14)
Mike Winger idea 2018-02-07

Mike illustrates psychosomatic confirmation bias using an anecdote about elastic wristbands supposedly improving equilibrium — a classic placebo/expectancy effect.

Explaining why subjects often report feeling better without real healing occurring.

psychosomatic response placebo effect confirmation bias
Mike Winger idea 2018-02-07

Scoliosis diagnosis via back-twisting is medically invalid — a 'pop' is not confirmation of healing, and Todd White has cultivated a deliberately low threshold for confirming healings.

Medical and methodological critique of the scoliosis healing video.

Todd White healing fraud confirmation bias
Mike Winger idea 2018-02-07

People forget wrong guesses and remember right ones — the psychological principle behind why cold-reading / divine guessing appears more accurate than it is.

Explanation of the cognitive bias that makes Todd White's guessing seem supernatural.

prophecy confirmation bias cold reading
Mike Winger idea 2018-04-18

Reason 4: We see 'fulfillment' everywhere — vague general events matching vague prophetic categories creates false confirmation

Fourth reason people fall for false predictions.

hermeneutics eschatology confirmation bias
Mike Winger idea 2018-04-18

Reason 6: People want it — desire for Jesus's return creates confirmation bias favoring predictions

Sixth reason people fall for false predictions.

Calvary Chapel Second Coming revival
Mike Winger idea 2019-03-13

Preterism: all/most Bible prophecy fulfilled by 70 AD — initially appealing but breaks down under scrutiny.

Lindy Z asks about preterism.

Hermeneutics Eschatology Preterism
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Problem 3: The slogan results in rejecting any claim you want — confirmation bias

Third of five critiques of the slogan.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence Existence of God Epistemology
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

The slogan formalized as a syllogism — and why it fails at premise 4

Mike reconstructs the argument in syllogistic form, attributed to critics of Sagan's argument ("argumentum Sagani").

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence Carl Sagan Miracles
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

David Hume's confirmation bias: he used the prior improbability of miracles to refuse even examining the evidence

Mike connects Hume's philosophical approach to the confirmation bias critique (Problem 3).

David Hume Christopher Hitchens Miracles
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Practical illustration: reliable coworker Jeff missing work — evidence overcomes prior probability

Mike uses an everyday scenario to illustrate how evidence should override prior probability.

Epistemology Prior probability Confirmation bias
Mike Winger idea 2019-05-01

Closing: five diagnostic questions viewers can use in conversation to expose the slogan as confirmation bias

Mike wraps the livestream with practical application.

Apologetics Evangelism Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
Mike Winger idea 2021-02-19

Question: Is it okay to sit quietly and write down what you hear from God (journaling/listening prayer)?

Viewer Mackenzie McEwan asks about the practice of trying to hear God and writing down what comes.

spiritual disciplines confirmation bias listening prayer
Mike Winger idea 2021-03-05

Confirmation bias accusations are themselves prone to confirmation bias; fear of confirmation bias is not sufficient reason to disbelieve something

Responding to a young Christian worried that his theism might be confirmation bias given that most atheistic arguments seem like straw men and ad hominem

straw man argument apologetics atheism
Mike Winger idea 2021-03-05

Changing one's mind is not required for intellectual validity; core epistemic beliefs are foundational and need no further justification

Continuing the apologetics discussion about confirmation bias

confirmation bias knowledge epistemology